Tuesday
Sep302014

Best Performing Stocks in the Month of October

One of our popular reports in the Bespoke Premium service is our weekly Stock Seasonality report.  This report, which is sent out each Monday, looks at the historical performance of the S&P 500, the ten sectors, as well as and each of the index's 500 components over the upcoming two week period over the last ten years.  For a sample of the report, please click here.

Along the same lines of our weekly Stock Seasonality report, with the new month kicking off tomorrow, the table below lists 20 stocks in the S&P 500 that have consistently traded up during the month of October.  In order to make the list, each stock has to have averaged a gain of more than 3% during the month of October and also must have seen positive returns at least 80% of the time.  October has historically been an up and down month for equities, but despite all the volatility, these stocks have a demonstrated track record of finishing the month in positive territory.

Topping this month's list are shares of Google (GOOGL), which have averaged a gain of 14.5% during the month with positive returns 80% of the time.  In addition to GOOGL, there are four other stocks from the Technology sector listed (AAPL, MA, ADBE, and ORCL).  

While a quarter of the stocks listed are from the Technology sector, the sector with the most representation is Financials with nearly half of the stocks (9) on the list.  The two top performing stocks listed are NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which have averaged gains of 8.4% and 7.8%, respectively.  Typically, increases in volatility are accompanied by a pick up in volumes, so the fact that two exchanges are near the top of the list makes perfect sense.

Monday
Sep292014

Fourth Quarter Market Performance During Mid-Term Election Years

The fourth quarter begins on Wednesday, and bulls will be looking forward to October after a rough September for stocks.  Although October has historically been a volatile month for stocks (see our last B.I.G. Tips report), the month has also typically been a positive one. 

Another thing to remember is that 2014 is a mid-term election year, and throughout the market's history, the S&P 500 has been very consistent in terms of performance during mid-term years.  Below is a table breaking down the S&P 500’s performance in the fourth quarter going back to 1928 when the index began.  Mid-term election years are highlighted in yellow.  As shown, during mid-term years since 1928, the S&P has averaged a move of...

Continue reading...  (Must be a Bespoke Premium member to view.)

Monday
Sep292014

More Bears than Bulls; Unchanged Week-Over-Week

Bearish sentiment remained above the 50% mark in our weekend Bespoke Market Poll.  As shown below, bearish sentiment came in it 53% versus 47% bullish sentiment.  The results were unchanged week-over-week, so we didn't see more bulls leave the party after last week's pullback.

Friday
Sep262014

Bespoke CNBC Appearance (9/26/14)

Bespoke's Paul Hickey was on CNBC's Fast Money on Wednesday to discuss stocks to buy following a strong quarter for the US Dollar.  To view the segment, click on the image below.

Friday
Sep262014

S&P 500 Higher or Lower from Here?

The market had an active week, with the Dow experiencing 100+ point moves on all five trading days (3 100-point down days, 2 100-point up days).  So which way will things head from here?  Please take part in our Bespoke Market Poll below by letting us know whether you think the S&P 500 will be higher or lower one month from now.  We'll report back with the results on Monday before the open.  Thanks for participating and have a great weekend!  If you're looking for more in-depth market analysis from Bespoke, sign up for a 5-day free trial to Bespoke Premium and access our just-published Bespoke Report newsletter.

Will the S&P 500 be higher or lower than its current level one month from now?
Higher
Lower
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Yesterday we rolled out the second edition of our Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report to Pulse subscribers over at our sister site -- Bespoke Market Intelligence.  Last month we introduced our new Pulse subscription offering and had a great response.  

With Pulse, we have created a low-cost way for investors to get early reads on consumer trends across the economic spectrum.  How do we do it?  Each month, we survey thousands of US consumers on a wide range of topics using questions designed by our financial research team.  We then compile and analyze the data and package it into our monthly Consumer Pulse Report, which we release one week before the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report.  This gives members ample time to position their portfolios leading up to the deluge of economic data released at the start of each month.  The Consumer Pulse Report is packed with in-depth market commentary and thought-provoking analytics that give you as good of a read on the broad economy as you’ll find.  Pulse also gives subscribers unique insights into the health of dozens of individual companies that fundamental or technical research can’t provide.  The Pulse report is easy to read and easy to understand — something that many research products are severely lacking these days.

Now that the second edition of Pulse is out, we are happy to give you a look at the first edition so you can see exactly what you're getting with a membership.  Please click here to view our August Pulse report.

In this month's consumer survey, there were a number of noteworthy trends that showed up in housing, consumer spending, economic sentiment, consumer electronics, restaurants, retail and health care.  We were also able to get an early read on the response to Apple's new iPhone 6 and the Apple Watch, and we provide an estimate of sales for Apple over the next three months.  

The new Pulse subscription includes our monthly Consumer Pulse Report that was just published, as well as "Pulse Points" reports that go out throughout the month.  These "Pulse Points" reports are similar to our widely followed "B.I.G. Tips" reports that are included with our Bespoke Premium package.

The membership cost for Pulse is $50/month or $500/year for the regular package, and $150/month or $1,500/year for the Institutional package.  In order to build up a base of new subscribers, we're currently offering a steep discount on the subscription cost for "charter" members who sign up now.  Sign up now as a charter member and get 30% off the subscription cost for the life of your membership!  This means you can sign up now for just $35/month or $350/year for the regular package, or $105/month or $1,050/year for the Institutional package.  All you need to do is enter "pulsecharter" in the coupon code section of the Pulse subscribe page to receive the 30% off discount.  

Once again, take a look at last month's edition of our Consumer Pulse Report to see a sample of our monthly publication.  To see this month's Pulse Report that was just released last night, head on over to the Pulse subscribe page and sign up today for 30% off!  As always, the first five days are free.  If it's not for you, you can cancel at no charge.

Friday
Sep262014

Big Week of Data Ahead

We got some marginally better (if very, very stale) data this morning with second quarter GDP figures getting revised up by 0.4% to 4.6% (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annual rate).  While this is good news, it's still very old data.  Luckily for economic data junkies like us, there will be plenty of indicators that are more current released next week.

Starting on Monday, we get Personal Income and Spending for August.  This is a key input for estimates of the consumption component of GDP, which is the lions' share of the US economy.  There's also price data released with these figures.  Later in the week, Auto Sales will provide further information on GDP tracking for Q3, as will Factory Orders next Thursday.  In employment data, there are the usual weekly releases of jobless claims as well as the monthly Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes the change in Nonfarm Payrolls, the most-watched monthly indicator out there.  In terms of business activity, there's a big array of data: seven different indicators are set for release including both "soft" survey data (ISM, PMI) and "hard" quantified estimates like Factory Orders and Construction Spending.  Consumer Confidence is released on Tuesday, and if all of that wasn't enough for you there's housing data too: Pending Home Sales and Case-Shiller are both out early in the week.

Next week will be an important gauge given some of the mixed indicators we've seen lately, including modest pullbacks in manufacturing activity and some concerns over the health of the consumer.  Employment data has still been strong of late other than last month's Nonfarm Payrolls, so the market will be watching even closer than usual to see if last month's disappointing print was a one-off or the start of a trend.  Next week might be the most important one in Q3 for gauging economic growth in the back half of 2014.  It will also be important to gauge how the big move in the US dollar this quarter filters across to specific economic stats.

Looking to get an early look at economic trends for September?  We have just published our monthly Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report, which details the results of our economic survey of more than 1,500 US consumers.  The Pulse report gets published each month a week before the Nonfarm Payrolls release, giving you ample time to position your porftolios heading into the number.  Click here to view this month's Pulse report at a 30% discount!

Friday
Sep262014

Bulls Holding Out Hope For the 10-Day A/D Line

With three 100-point down days this week, a lot of the short-term breadth indicators we track have been trading down to oversold levels.  One of those indicators is the S&P 500's 10-Day Advance/Decline line. The 10-Day A/D line measures the sum of the net daily number of advancing issues in the S&P 500 over a 10-day rolling basis.  Whenever this indicator turns really negative (oversold), it is a sign that the equity market may be due for a short-term bounce, while a really positive reading (overbought) suggests that the market's rally is due for a pause.

The charts below show the S&P 500 (top chart) and the index's 10-Day A/D line over the last year.   In the top chart, the green dots indicate each time that the S&P 500's 10-Day A/D line hit oversold levels (green zone in bottom chart).  As you can clearly see in the chart, each time the 10-Day A/D line reached oversold levels, the S&P 500 quickly turned around.  Additionally, in each of the rallies that followed each oversold reading,  the S&P 500 traded up to new bull market highs.  History doesn't always repeat itself, but bulls certainly have their fingers crossed that the trend over the last year continues this time around too.

Friday
Sep262014

Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report -- September 2014

Yesterday we rolled out the second edition of our Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report to Pulse subscribers over at our sister site -- Bespoke Market Intelligence.  Last month we introduced our new Pulse subscription offering and had a great response.  

With Pulse, we have created a low-cost way for investors to get early reads on consumer trends across the economic spectrum.  How do we do it?  Each month, we survey thousands of US consumers on a wide range of topics using questions designed by our financial research team.  We then compile and analyze the data and package it into our monthly Consumer Pulse Report, which we release one week before the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report.  This gives members ample time to position their portfolios leading up to the deluge of economic data released at the start of each month.  The Consumer Pulse Report is packed with in-depth market commentary and thought-provoking analytics that give you as good of a read on the broad economy as you’ll find.  Pulse also gives subscribers unique insights into the health of dozens of individual companies that fundamental or technical research can’t provide.  The Pulse report is easy to read and easy to understand — something that many research products are severely lacking these days.

Now that the second edition of Pulse is out, we are happy to give you a look at the first edition so you can see exactly what you're getting with a membership.  Please click here to view our August Pulse report.

In this month's consumer survey, there were a number of noteworthy trends that showed up in housing, consumer spending, economic sentiment, consumer electronics, restaurants, retail and health care.  We were also able to get an early read on the response to Apple's new iPhone 6 and the Apple Watch, and we provide an estimate of sales for Apple over the next three months.  

The new Pulse subscription includes our monthly Consumer Pulse Report that was just published, as well as "Pulse Points" reports that go out throughout the month.  These "Pulse Points" reports are similar to our widely followed "B.I.G. Tips" reports that are included with our Bespoke Premium package.

The membership cost for Pulse is $50/month or $500/year for the regular package, and $150/month or $1,500/year for the Institutional package.  In order to build up a base of new subscribers, we're currently offering a steep discount on the subscription cost for "charter" members who sign up now.  Sign up now as a charter member and get 30% off the subscription cost for the life of your membership!  This means you can sign up now for just $35/month or $350/year for the regular package, or $105/month or $1,050/year for the Institutional package.  All you need to do is enter "pulsecharter" in the coupon code section of the Pulse subscribe page to receive the 30% off discount.  

Once again, take a look at last month's edition of our Consumer Pulse Report to see a sample of our monthly publication.  To see this month's Pulse Report that was just released last night, head on over to the Pulse subscribe page and sign up today for 30% off!  As always, the first five days are free.  If it's not for you, you can cancel at no charge.

Friday
Sep262014

Chart Notes

Below are a few charts worth posting this morning following yesterday's big down-draft for US equities.  These charts are just a few of the dozens featured in our weekly Sector Snapshot report available to Bespoke Premium subscribers.  Sign up for a 5-day free Premium trial to access this week's report.  Quite a bit changed after yesterday's big market decline.

The first chart highlights the trading range for the S&P 500 over the last year.  The white line represents the 50-day moving average, while the light blue shading represents between one standard deviation above and below the 50-day.  As you can see, the move yesterday caused a break below support at the 50-day -- a negative technical pattern.  Technicians will be looking for the index to re-take its 50-day before getting aggressively long again.  Longer-term, the index remains in its uptrend.  We would need to see the index break 1,900 or even lower for the long-term uptrend to fall apart.

After yesterday's move lower, just 38% of stocks in the S&P 500 remain above their 50-day moving averages.  As you can see in the chart, breadth has been weak for months now, with this reading not getting close to its one-year highs even as the market traded to new all-time highs recently.  

The one good thing about falling prices in a strong earnings environment is that valuations get better.  The recent move lower for the S&P has pulled its trailing 12-month P/E ratio back below 18.

One sector worth highlighting is Energy.  As shown below, not one stock in the S&P 500 Energy sector is currently above its 50-day moving average.  It can't get worse than that!

Valuations for the Energy sector have moved sharply lower over the last few months.  Back in June, the Energy sector's P/E was above 17.  As of yesterday's close, Energy's P/E is now below 15 at 14.90.

Thursday
Sep252014

Like Shooting Fish in a Barrel -- Short Sellers Winning Big in September

Short interest figures for the middle of September were released after the close yesterday, and the table below shows the 27 stocks in the S&P 1500 that have more than 25% of their free-floating shares sold short.  In the right most column of the table, we have also included the performance of each stock so far this month.  As you can see from the results, if you are a short-seller, it doesn't get much better than this.  While the S&P 1500 is down 2.05% so far this month, the 27 most heavily shorted stocks in the index are down 11.57%.  Furthermore, only six of the 27 stocks listed are even up on the month, 13 are down by more than 10%, and five have lost more than a quarter of their value just this month alone! 

It is also not just these stocks that are down sharply this month.  The chart below shows our decile performance analysis of stocks in the S&P 1500 based on their short interest as a percentage of float.  Month to date, the 150 stocks with the highest short interest as a percentage of float are down an average of 7.17%.  Meanwhile, the 150 stocks with the lowest short interest as a percentage of float are down just 2.37%.  So far this month, it has been like shooting fish in a barrel for short sellers.

Thursday
Sep252014

Bullish Sentiment Declines, But Still Above Average

Bullish sentiment on the part of individual investors took a slight hit this week, but given the back to back 100 point declines in the DJIA to start the week, it is probably more surprising that bullish sentiment didn't decline more.  According to the weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment fell from 42.24% down to 41.84%.  We would note, however, that this is the eighth straight week where bullish sentiment has been above its bull market average, which is the longest streak since January.  Investors have gotten a reputation for being quick to head for the exits during this bull market, so it will be interesting to see if today's sharp decline has any impact on next week's numbers.

While bullish sentiment only saw a slight decline, bearish sentiment rose from 23.0% up to 28.3%.  That 5.3 percentage point increase was the largest one week increase since the beginning of August.

Thursday
Sep252014

Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Expected

After a much better than expected jobless claims report last week, claims were forecasted to give back some of those declines this week.  With claims coming in at a level of 293K, they did rise but not by as much as was expected (296K).  The fact that claims were still below 300K, and have been there in six of the last ten weeks, is an encouraging sign.

Even with this week's increase in claims, the four-week moving average managed to post a slight decline, falling from 299.75K down to 298.5K.  This is now less than 5K above the post-recession low of 293.75K that we saw on August 1st.

On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, jobless claims fell by 3.6K down to 238.5K.  For the current week of the year, this is the lowest reading since at least 2000 and well below the average of 319.7K.  It is also the ninth lowest NSA weekly reading since 2000.

Wednesday
Sep242014

Internet Stock Trading Range Screen

Internet stocks ran into some trouble following the Alibaba (BABA) IPO, so below is an updated look at our trading range screen for the 30 largest stocks in the Nasdaq Internet index.  Note that Alibaba (BABA) would now be ranked as the second largest Internet stock in this list behind only Google (GOOGL).  Once the stock trades long enough to develop a trading range, we'll add it to the screen.

For each stock shown below, the dot represents where it is currently trading within its normal range, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago.  The black vertical "N" line represents the stock's 50-day moving average.  If the dot is to the right of the black line, the stock is above its 50-day, and vice versa for below.  Moves into the red shaded area are an indication that the stock is overbought, while moves into the green area mean the stock is oversold.

As shown, eight of the thirty stocks listed are currently in oversold territory, while just two are overbought (FB and CSGP).  Some of the stocks that have seen big moves lower within their ranges over the past week include Yahoo! (YHOO), Equinix (EQIX), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Pandora (P) and IACI.  Facebook (FB), Google (GOOGL) and HomeAway (AWAY) are the only ones that have moved higher and are still above their 50-days.

Each day over at Bespoke Premium, we run a large list of key ETFs across all asset classes through this trading range screen.  This allows clients to quickly see which areas of the market are seeing buying, and which are seeing selling.  Sign up for a 5-day free trial to the Bespoke Premium service to check out this daily ETF Trends report. 

Tuesday
Sep232014

Best Quarter For the Dollar in Four Years

Most people are probably well aware that the dollar has been strong lately, but many may be surprised by the extent of the rally.  With a gain of over 6%, the US Dollar Index is on pace for its best quarter in more than four years.  To find even a time when the US Dollar Index was up 5% in a calendar quarter you have to go back to Q3 of 2011.

Based on the fact that you have to go back three years just to find a quarterly move that was even close to this quarter's gain, you can imagine that this quarter's move in the dollar is likely to have implications across all different asset classes, including equities.  Since different sectors and stocks within those sectors have different levels of exposure to international markets, not all parts of the equity market will be equally impacted.

Earlier today, we sent out an extensive report to Bespoke Premium and Institutional clients detailing the performance of different sectors following other quarters where the US Dollar Index rallied more than 5%.  If you are a client and want to see this important report, please click on the link below.  If you are not already a client, but want access to the report, sign up today for our no obligation free trial today!

Strong Quarter For the US Dollar

Tuesday
Sep232014

New iPhone 6/6+ Three Month Sales Estimates from Pulse

From our monthly Consumer Pulse Report survey due out this Thursday, we were able to collect key Apple iPhone sales expectations data over the next three months.  We have just sent out a two-page report on our iPhone findings over to current Pulse members.  You can view the report now by signing up for a 5-day free trial to our new Pulse subscription service.  With the service, you get our monthly Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report along with ad hoc Pulse Points throughout the month similar to the Apple report we have just sent out.  

Act now and get 30% off the subscription cost for the life of your membership!  The service is in its early stages, and we're offering this discount to an initial batch of "charter members."  All you have to do is enter "pulsecharter" in the coupon code section of the Pulse Subscribe page to receive the discount.  

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