Below we have updated our historical charts of the Intrade contracts for the Democratic primary winner along with the Presidential election winner. The contracts either expire at 0 or 100 based on the outcome of the event. As shown below, the contract for Obama to be the Democratic nominee is currently trading at 80.5. Buyers would spend $80.5 to receive $100 if Obama wins. The contract for Hillary Clinton to win is currently trading at 18.9. Based on these numbers, the hits to the Obama camp in recent weeks barely budged the odds of him winning the nomination,
The contracts for the winner of the Presidential election, however, do indicate that struggles in the Democratic party have caused traders to increase their bets on John McCain. As shown, the odds for McCain to become the next President have steadily risen to 39.2 in recent weeks, while the odds for Obama to win have dropped from a high of 57.6 to 47.6. As shown, Mr. Obama is still currently favored to win in November.
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