Tuesday
Jun242008

Looking for Action? S&P 1500 Most Volatile Stocks

For traders with a more short-term time horizon, we have compiled a list of the S&P 1500 stocks that have the largest intraday high-low ranges (based on the average percent spread between the intraday high and low over the last fifty days). We then grouped the stocks based on whether they have a rising or falling 50-day moving average. Stocks highlighted in gray are new to the list this month.

As the table shows, most of the stocks on the list are trading in the single digits, and while percentages are the same no matter what the price, some traders will avoid stocks trading that low in price.  With that in mind, we have also included a list of the most volatile stocks trading above $10 per share.  For this list, we have only included the ten most volatile names with rising 50-day moving averages and the ten most volatile names with falling 50-day moving averages.

Intraday_spreads_062408

Intraday_spreads_062408_10

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Tuesday
Jun242008

Plotting the April Case/Shiller Housing Numbers

CaseshilleraprilChalk it up to seasonal factors, but it's good to see some green in the month over month readings of the S&P/Case-Shiller Housing indices.  As shown at right, 8 of the 20 cities that Case-Shiller track showed increases in home prices from March to April.  Cleveland saw the biggest month over month increase at 2.94%, followed by Dallas (1.12%), Denver (0.83%), and Seattle (0.72%). 

There were plenty of declines in April as well, however.  Miami fell another 4% in just one month, while Las Vegas, Tampa, Minneapolis, LA, San Fran, San Diego and Phoenix all fell by more than 2%. 

And the year over year numbers are still quite depressing.  The Composite 10-City index was down 16.3% from April 2007 to April 2008.  And Charlotte, which was the last city to hang onto year over year price gains, finally turned negative versus a year ago.

Below we highlight historical charts of the monthly year over year percent change in median home prices for the 20 cities tracked by S&P/Case-Shiller.  If you look real closely, you'll see that in April the year over year declines stopped declining by as much as they have been recently.

Caseshill

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Caseshill2

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Tuesday
Jun242008

What's A Fed To Do?

Focus will be on the Fed tomorrow as they are set to provide an update on the Fed Funds Rate.  Mr. Bernanke and friends are in a tough spot these days, and investors want to know whether they're more worried about a slowing economy or runaway inflation.  Regardless of what the Fed does, some investors will be happy and some will be upset with the decision -- and the market should move based on whoever is in the majority. 

As we typically do around Fed days, below are two polls asking Bespoke readers what you want the Fed to do versus what you think the Fed will do.  Please take a quick second to answer the two survey questions, and we'll report back with the results before the 2:15 PM ET decision tomorrow.  Thanks for participating!


What do you want the Fed to do?
Leave the Fed Funds Rate at 2.00%.
Lower the Fed Funds Rate to 1.75%.
Lower the Fed Funds Rate to 1.50%.
Raise the Fed Funds Rate to 2.25%.
Raise the Fed Funds Rate to 2.50%.
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com


What do you think the Fed will do?
Leave the Fed Funds Rate at 2.00%.
Lower the Fed Funds Rate to 1.75%.
Lower the Fed Funds Rate to 1.50%.
Raise the Fed Funds Rate to 2.25%.
Raise the Fed Funds Rate to 2.50%.
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com

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Tuesday
Jun242008

Consumer Confidence and the Markets

Consumer Confidence is now about as low as it has ever been since the economic indicator began back in 1967.  Below we have plotted the monthly Consumer Confidence number with the one-year forward return (%) of the S&P 500.  So the red line indicates the change in the S&P 500 one year ahead of time.  As shown, stock performance has generally been positive over the next 12 months when Confidence levels have been this low.

Consconf

Tuesday
Jun242008

Bespoke's Paul Hickey on CNBC's Street Signs Today

Street_signs_4Bespoke's Paul Hickey will appear on CNBC's Street Signs with Erin Burnett today after 2:30 PM ET to discuss the markets and end of quarter window dressing.

Tuesday
Jun242008

Bespoke's International Snapshot

The recent selloff in equities has really spared no one.  As shown in our trading range charts below of 22 major country indices, the trend has been down across the board in recent weeks.  Even Brazil, Mexico and Russia, who had all held up relatively well this year, have sold off quite a bit. Currently, 19 of the 22 countries are trading in oversold territory (Canada, Japan and Russia are neutral).  European countries like France, Germany and Italy have really taken it on the chin, while China and India remain the biggest losers in 2008.  After forming short-term uptrends off of the March lows, global equity markets have now lost most of their gains and are looking to move back into downtrends.

Austbraz

Canachin

Honggerm

Franindi

Italjapa

Malaspx5

Mexiruss

Singsout

Swedspai

Soutswit

Taiwftse

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Monday
Jun232008

Bank Index (BKX): Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing

With its closing price of 60.87, the KBW Bank Index has now erased 100% of the gains it had off of its October 2002 low.  Even worse, the index now sits less than 2 points above its low from October 1998.  Talk about a lost decade

Bkx_index_0608_2

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Monday
Jun232008

Earnings Volatility for the Dow Stocks

Earlier today we posted on the most volatile stocks on earnings reports out of the 2,700 stocks in the Bespoke Interactive Earnings Report Database.  Below we highlight the same information for the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  The list is sorted by the average one-day absolute percent change on earnings reports.  As shown, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is the most volatile Dow stock following its earnings reports.  HPQ has averaged a change of +/-4.83% on the first trading day following the 24 earnings reports we have on file for the stock.  HPQ is followed by INTC, CAT, MSFT and AA.  VZ, CVX, JNJ, BAC and PG are the least volatile stocks on earnings.

We also include the average one-day change (not absolute) on earnings reports for the Dow 30.  This highlights whether the stock tends to trade higher or lower in reaction to earnings.  As shown, the five most volatile stocks typically average declines on earnings, with Intel averaging the biggest declines at -1.54%.  UTX averages the biggest gains on its report days at 1.04%.

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The Bespoke Earnings Report Database provides detailed analysis for over 2,700 stocks. We take earnings analysis to the next level by not only highlighting how the actual reports compare to analyst estimates, but also how the stock price reacted to the report. Users of this database can easily find how a stock or basket of stocks typically reacts to earnings in order to prepare themselves for future quarterly releases. Traders can also see how stocks trade after gapping up or down on earnings to develop trade ideas. If IBM opens down $2 on earnings, what does the stock typically do next? This database can answer that question and much more for the majority of US stocks that trade today!

Please call 914-315-1248 or email info@bespokeinvest.com if you would like to learn more about the Bespoke Interactive Earnings Report Database!  The database can be purchased in its entirety or on a stock by stock basis.

You can also learn about the many other products that Bespoke offers at Bespoke Premium. 

Monday
Jun232008

Point of No Return or Perfect Buying Opportunity?

The recent declines in many Financial stocks have put them in unprecedented negative territory.  Below we highlight historical charts of the percentage from 52-week highs for Lehman (LEH), Wachovia (WB), Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Bank of America (BAC).  At its low point earlier this month, Lehman was 72% below its 52-week high, making it the furthest below it has ever been.  Wachovia is 68% below its highs over the last year, and Citi got down to 66% below back in March.  Merrill Lynch and Bank of America aren't quite at record territory yet, but they're getting close.  Back in 1998, Merrill got down to 65% below its 52-week high, and it is at -60% now.  In 1990, BAC was 66% below its 52-week high, and it's at -50% now. 

The consensus view is that the struggling Financials still have much further to go on the downside before the pain is over.  But if they fall much further, they might have dug a hole they can't get out of.  Taking a longer-term view of one, two, or even five years from now, will these charts have marked a screaming buy, or a clear sign that the companies were "toast?"

Leh52

Wb52

Citi52

Mer52

Bac52

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Monday
Jun232008

Bespoke Premium Free Trial Offer

Thank you for your interest in Bespoke Investment Group!  For your participation in this week's Bespoke Prediction Poll, we are offering you a 5-day free trial to our unrivaled Bespoke Premium research service.

During your 5-day free trial, you'll receive a username and password to login and view current and historical reports at Bespoke Premium.  You'll also receive all new reports by email so you get them in a timely manner.  To learn more about the products included in the Bespoke Premium suite, please click here

To start your free trial, simply call us at 914-315-1248 or click the button below to sign up right online.  If you try out the service and like it, the $40 monthly subscription automatically begins after the 5-day free trial ends.  You can cancel your subscription at any time during the trial with no strings attached.

Please click the button below to sign up now:






Monday
Jun232008

Most Volatile Stocks on Earnings

With second quarter earnings season now just a couple of weeks away, below we highlight the 25 stocks in the Bespoke Interactive Earnings Report Database that have historically been the most volatile on their report days.  We first filtered the database of more than 2,750 stocks to find the ones with at least 10 historical quarterly earnings reports that are trading at more than $10 per share.  We then calculated the average absolute percentage change on the first trading day following all reports for each stock. 

Below we highlight the 25 stocks with the highest average one-day absolute percentage change on report days.  As shown, Multi-Fineline (MFLX) tops the list with an average absolute change of 18.64% on its 14 report days.  It is volatile both on the upside and downside, however, since its average one-day change (not absolute) is just 0.89%.  Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) ranks second at 17.77%, but it typically moves to the upside since its average one-day change (not absolute) is 9.46%.  Other notables on the list of most volatile stocks on earnings include TZOO, PCLN, NTRI, NFLX, SNDK, AMZN and BIDU.  If you're looking to play big moves on earnings in either direction, these names are right up your alley.

Volatileearnings

The Bespoke Earnings Report Database provides detailed analysis for over 2,700 stocks. We take earnings analysis to the next level by not only highlighting how the actual reports compare to analyst estimates, but also how the stock price reacted to the report. Users of this database can easily find how a stock or basket of stocks typically reacts to earnings in order to prepare themselves for future quarterly releases. Traders can also see how stocks trade after gapping up or down on earnings to develop trade ideas. If IBM opens down $2 on earnings, what does the stock typically do next? This database can answer that question and much more for the majority of US stocks that trade today!

Please call 914-315-1248 or email info@bespokeinvest.com if you would like to learn more about the Bespoke Interactive Earnings Report Database!  The database can be purchased in its entirety or on a stock by stock basis.

You can also learn about the many other products that Bespoke offers at Bespoke Premium.

Monday
Jun232008

Bespoke Prediction Poll Results

We started our new weekly Prediction Poll last Friday and received nearly 200 reader responses over the weekend for where the Dow 30 would close this Friday the 27th.  Below we highlight the results from the poll, and as shown, the average of all predictions was 11,818.  The Dow closed at 11,873 on Friday, so that means the crowd is looking for the index to fall 55 points (or -0.46%) this week. 

Thanks to all who participated.  And remember, the person with the guess closest to the Dow's actual close on Friday will receive one free month of the Bespoke Premium research service.

Djiatargets627

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Monday
Jun232008

Oil: What a Difference Six Months Makes

Oil_bubble_barronsThe cover headline of this week's Barron's reads, "Oil Bubble: When It Will Pop and Why."  The article outlines the trends behind oil's run-up, and why these trends could reverse to cause the bubble to pop, bringing prices down to $100 per barrel.  Six months ago, oil was trading in the low $90s, and the big debate was whether or not it would break above $100.  Today, we're talking about a potential bursting of the bubble, bringing prices back down to a 'more reasonable' level of $100.  What a difference six months makes.

Friday
Jun202008

Bespoke's Prediction Poll

This week we're introducing the Bespoke Prediction Poll to gather a consensus view on next week's market action from Think B.I.G. readers.  Please enter your prediction for where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close next Friday.  The index is currently trading at 11,842.69.  Predictions must be in by Sunday at midnight.  The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service.  Thanks for participating!









Where will the DJIA close on Friday, June 27th?
E-mail Address: *

* Required

For non-members of the Bespoke Premium service, we have recently begun issuing our Week in Review newsletter that provides a detailed look at the comings and goings in the financial world over the last week.  You can sign up to receive the Week in Review along with all of our other reports by visiting BespokePremium.com.  Please click the image below to view last week's Week in Review as an example.

Along with our Week in Review newsletter, below we provide the titles of the in-depth B.I.G. Tips reports we released this week.  If any spark your interest, they are all available to our Premium subscribers.  These are anticipatory, ahead-of-the-curve research reports that cover markets, economies, stocks, commodities, housing and anything else related to making people money. 

This week's B.I.G. Tips reports: Earnings Estimate Revisions (stocks with the biggest increases and decreases in analyst estimates), Stock Ratings (a look at the most and least loved stocks from the major financial websites), Coal Stocks Soar (will parabolic rises be met with similar declines?), S&P 500 vs Oil (stocks are much worse than they look), Bull Market in Japan (follow the new trend?), FDX Earnings (how to trade the stock at the open), Fed Funds Forecasts (are Fed Funds futures that accurate?), Four Quarters of Negative Growth (what to expect for the market going forward).

Thanks for taking part in the Bespoke Prediction Poll!  If you'd like to try out our Premium service, please sign up at BespokePremium.com.

Friday
Jun202008

NYSE Stocks With The Highest Short Interest as a % of Float

As we noted yesterday, short interest on the NYSE increased another 7% since the end of May.  Along with a chart of the shoot up in short interest since the S&P 500 hits its peak last year, we also provide a list of the 25 stocks on the NYSE with the highest short interest as a percentage of float.  As shown, FirstFed Financial (FED -- nice ticker) currently has the highest short interest at 80% of float.  The stock is down 71% this year, so the shorts are clearly winning that battle.  There are some stocks on the list where the shorts are losing, however.  PZN and TLB both have more than 50% of their float sold short, but they're up slightly on the year.  Big Lots (BIG) has 45% of its float sold short, but it is up more than 100% in 2008.  If they can't get BIG to go down, it looks like the shorts are going to die trying.

Nyse_short_interest_0615

Nyseshort 

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