Don't look now, but oil is only up $1.60! We must have found a new oil reserve the size of China, or finally made peace in the Middle East. Did President Bush and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad just have high tea in Crawford? It's silly, but with oil up six days in a row and up $15 since the start of May, up $1.60 seems like welcome relief. There's still a half hour left of trading for the commodity, however, so $1.60 could easily turn into $3 or $4. Especially if it's announced that global demand has dropped 40% or something. Just like February in the Northeast when you ponder whether it will ever get warm again, who knows if oil will ever go down again.
Below we highlight prior times since 1986 that oil has been up six days in a row. It has now happened 37 times since then, and the commodity has actually gone up on day seven 52% of the time for a median return of 0.18%. Over the next week, oil has gone up 58% of the time for a median gain of 0.42%. The last time oil had a six-day winning streak was October 16th of last year. The commodity did, however, go down on the next day and over the next week following that streak.
Update: Oil only went up another $0.75 in the last half hour of trading to settle at $125.90 or so. It's a shame we have to wait a couple days for it to go up to $130.