While our end of summer special is going on, we thought we'd highlight a few of the key products included with our subscription packages. One of them is our Bespoke Morning Lineup, delivered to your inbox each morning before the open.
The Bespoke Morning Lineup is your pre-market source for up-to-date information concerning market events overnight and in the morning. On a daily basis, we summarize major international market events, stock specific news of note, analyst actions, and economic indicators/events. In addition, we also outline what major indicators, events, earnings reports, conferences, dividends, splits, and upcoming index changes are due the following day so that you can plan ahead and be ready.
On page two of the Morning Lineup, we provide graphic-rich charts and graphs of market internals, overbought/oversold levels, trading ranges, relative strength and lists of big winners and losers. On page three, we highlight short and long-term charts of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, oil, the long bond and the US Dollar.
Investors view our Morning Lineup religiously each morning to get prepared for the market’s open. There’s simply no better way to start the trading day.
The Bespoke Morning Lineup is part of our Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional services. Click here to view today's report as a free sample. We also provide commentary in the email that goes out with the Morning Lineup. Below is today's commentary that was sent out to clients.
Snapshot: Equity index futures are flat this morning (spoos +6 bps, Dow futures +9, Nazz 100 +8 bps). Asia is coming off a solid session and European equities are mixed with reasonable dispersion but trading at much healthier volume levels than recent sessions. No European major market is up or down more than 30 bps as of this writing. Global bonds continue to rally, led by the bund, down 2.6 bps to yield 91.1 bps in the ten year tenor. Treasury yields are lower by about 2 bps across the curve with slightly better performance from the 7 year point out (curve flattening of 1 bp in fives-thirties). Credit markets are basically flat. The dollar is selling off this morning (-15 bps), retreating from 52-week highs put in yesterday, with selling starting as European traders began reaching their desks at about 2:00 AM EST. The USD is down versus every major cross, performing worst versus the CAD and NZD. Metals are up this morning (gold +35 bps, silver +42 bps) and energy is flat (Brent +10 bps, WTI +26 bps) except for natural gas (+1.2%).
European equities: Equities are subdued today with the CAC 40, DAX, and Euro Stoxx 50 trading in lock-step, all down about 10 bps on underperformance from Energy, Materials and Consumer Staples where breadth is extremely weak. Financials are outperforming, but despite their heavy weighting in many EU indices they aren’t enough to drag markets positive. Italy (+18 bps) and Spain (+29 bps) are outperforming, but not drastically. We’re seeing a nice pop in Portugal (+90 bps), and Austria (+30 bps) is also outperforming which has been rare this year (trailing both the DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 by about 6% and 11% respectively). Russian equities are up 76 bps in USD terms on the Russian Cash Index, helped by seemingly productive talks with Ukraine yesterday and a stable ruble (RUBUSD stable around 36 all week).
European bonds: The real story in Europe this morning continues to be the German government bond market where yields are now negative for the first three years of its yield curve. Ten year bunds now yield 91.1 bps, trading at a seemingly inconceivable 146 bps spread to Treasuries. EUR-denominated government paper is trading well across the board, as spreads to bunds fall even faster than the yields on the less-risky German debt does. At the ten year point on the curve, bunds are down 2.6 bps in yield this morning, but compare that with yield declines of 3.4 bps in France, 4.6 bps in Italy, 8.5 bps in Spain, 3.6 bps in Portugal, 3.6 bps in the Netherlands and 10.5 bps in Greece. One catalyst for the price action today is a pair of consumer confidence misses in Germany and Italy. German GfK Consumer Confidence printing at 8.6 versus expectations of 8.9 and previous reading of 9.0 (revised down to 8.9), while Italian Consumer Confidence missed, 101.9 versus 104.0 expected and 104.6 previous, which was revised down to 104.4. These misses are just the latest in a seemingly never-ending series of economic data declines and misses for the European area.
Global bonds: The action in Europe is vacuuming other global yields lower as well. While not down as much as benchmark bunds, we’re also seeing yield declines in UK gilts (yield -3.2 bps), Swiss government bonds (yield -1.8 bps), Australian government bonds (yield -2.4 bps) and New Zealand debt (yield -3.0 bps). The only major global bond market that is not trading lower in yield this morning for its ten year tenor is Canada, where yields are less than half a bp higher as of this writing. The tractor beam of EU yields is by far the single largest factor in this pattern, in our view.
Asia: Overnight trading was solid in Asia with the best performance going to New Zealand (+93 bps) and Taiwan (+98 bps). Volumes were average or higher than recent levels for most markets, China being one exception where shares traded were three-quarters of the average for the last two weeks. Japanese equities traded up, barely, with the Nikkei 225 eking out a 9 bps gain after reversing off mid-day lows; volume edged higher than extremely depressed two-week averages but remains very light. China was mixed with A-shares outperforming (Shanghai Composite +11 bps) while Hong Kong and H-shares had the worst day in the region (Hang Seng -62 bps, Hang Seng China Enterprises -45 bps). India had a solid day (+46 bps), while other regional markets like Singapore (+55 bps), Korea (+33 bps), Philippines (+20 bps) and Indonesia (+36 bps) all put in decent gains. Asian credit also outperformed versus US and European indices with the iTraxx Japan CDS and iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG CDS indices both tightening a point.
Econ Data: Light day in data today after yesterday’s wave of releases. The only release is weekly Mortgage Applications from the Mortgage Banker’s Association, which were out at 7:00 AM, showing mortgage activity moved slightly higher on lower rates week-over-week. There are two Treasury auctions today, with an 11:00 AM issue of two year floating rate notes (a re-opening of an existing issue) and a 1:00 PM sale of five year notes, a new issue.