« Long-Term VIX Chart | Main | Jobless Claims Lower Than Expected »
Thursday
May292014

Updated S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Numbers

The March S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices were released earlier this week, and below is an updated look at the data.  The first table below shows the month-over-month and year-over-year change in home prices for the 20 cities and two composite indices that S&P/Case-Shiller tracks.  As shown, 19 of 20 cities posted month-over-month gains from February to March, leaving New York as the only city that saw a decline in prices.  San Francisco saw the biggest uptick in March at +2.36%, followed by Seattle, Cleveland, Miami and Denver.  

On a year-over-year basis, Las Vegas is up the most at 21.15%, followed closely by San Francisco at 20.95%.  Cleveland, Charlotte and New York saw the slowest year-over-year gains in home prices.

Below is a look at how far home prices still are from their all-time highs made during the housing bubble that peaked in 2005.  While the two composite indices are still 20% from their all-time highs, 2 of the 20 cities have actually already taken out their bubble highs -- Dallas and Denver.  Boston and Charlotte are the next closest to their prior highs, while San Francisco is just 15% away.  Given how far San Francisco prices fell during the bursting of the bubble, the fact that it's now just 15% away from new highs is pretty remarkable.  The social media/Internet craze of the last few years has definitely inflated prices significantly there.

As you can see below, San Francisco's home prices are up the most off of their housing-bust lows, gaining 54% at this point.  Las Vegas has bounced the second most off its lows at +46%, but as you saw in the chart above, Vegas home prices are still 44% from their prior highs.  At the bottom of the list below is New York, which has now seen home prices bounce just 8% off of their lows.  There are certainly pockets of the New York area that have seen big jumps in prices, but the Case-Shiller data shows that the area has underperformed on the bounce back compared to other cities.  

Below are historical price charts of home prices for the cities tracked by Case-Shiller along with charts of the two composite indices.  These charts really help you see the bounces that certain cities have seen off of their lows as well as the ones that haven't bounced much at all.  The charts for Denver and Dallas are clear breakouts!

Here's your chance to celebrate the start of the summer season with Bespoke!  During this Memorial Day trading week, we're running a 10% discount on our premium content subscriptions.  Just enter the word "summer" in the coupon code section of our Subscribe page to receive the discounted rate for the life of your membership.  Sign up today to take advantage of our five-day free trial and view our just-published Bespoke Report newsletter, with analysis on where this market is headed post Memorial Day.