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Thursday
Mar282013

Economic Indicators Ending March on a Down Note

During the first half of March, we saw a remarkable amount of economic indicators beating estimates.  As March comes to an end, however, it looks as if economists have begun to get ahead of themselves.  Below is a snapshot of the economic indicators released this week.  For each indicator, we show its actual number as well as the consensus economist estimate heading into the release.  As shown, there were 15 indicators released this week, and 11 of them came in weaker than expected.  For comparison's sake, during the weeks of 3/4 to 3/8 and 3/11-3/15, there were 30 indicators released and 24 of them came in better than expected.

Below is a chart that shows the percentage of economic indicators that have beaten estimates during March as the month has progressed.  As shown, back on March 13th, a whopping 81.5% of March indicators had come in better than expected.  Since then, however, we've seen a pretty sharp drop-off, with a big decline this week down to just 61.3%.  It looks like economists jumped on the bullish bandwagon in the middle of the month and they're now starting to get burned.