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Monday
Feb252013

Intrade Odds for 2014 and 2016

It took a few months (since the 2012 election), but Intrade.com has now posted new contracts for the 2014 and 2016 US elections.  As shown below, bettors are placing early odds of 86.5% for the GOP to retain control of the House after the 2014 mid-term elections.  The Intrade odds for the Democratic Party to maintain control of the Senate are at 63%, so bettors are thinking the Senate will be much closer than the House, at least at the moment.

Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential election, the odds for a Democrat to win stand at 55%, while the odds for a Republican to win are at 45.4%.  Pretty tight odds, but the Democrats currently have the upper hand.

Below is a look at the odds on individual Republican candidates to become the 2016 GOP nominee.  As of now, Marco Rubio has the strongest odds, but they're just at 14.9%.  Paul Ryan is second at 11.9%, followed by Jindal at 10% and Jeb Bush at 5.4%.  There are 22 candidates listed, but these are the only four where contracts have traded above 5%.

Hillary Clinton has a stronghold on the odds for the 2016 Democratic nomination.  As shown below, Hillary's odds are currently at 45%, which is very high at this point in the game.  Joe Biden is at 7.5% and Rahm Emanuel is at 5%.  No contracts have traded for the Andrew Cuomo contract, but the bid/ask suggests odds of around 10%.  Some other Democrats in the mix are Deval Patrick, Cory Booker, Martin O'Malley, Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren, but no contracts have really traded for these potential candidates.

There is also a contract for whether Hillary will formally announce her candidacy before the end of 2015, and while no contracts have traded on this one yet, the bid/ask is at 55/65.  Basically, the contracts suggest that if Hillary decides to run, she'll be the nominee.

2016 is a long way away, but it's never too early to start looking at potential outcomes!