With Super Bowl XLVII less than 36 hours away, it is time to forget about seasonal patterns, put down the annual reports, ditch the economic data, and ignore the rest of earnings season. That’s because all you need to know about the market for the rest of the year all boils down to who wins on Sunday. Just kidding.
If you’re looking for some cocktail party conversation ahead of kickoff on Sunday, what better way to combine two of the hottest trending topics in America right now - Football and the stock market. In the first table below, we summarize the average performance of the S&P 500 from the Super Bowl through year end based on whether a team from the AFC or the NFC wins the game. In the 21 years where the AFC has won the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 3.44% for the rest of the year with positive returns 61.9% of the time. When the NFC has won the game, however, the average change of the S&P 500 from the Super Bowl through year end is triple the AFC’s average (10.37%) with positive returns 80% of the time. Since the first Super Bowl in 1967, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 7.21% from the game through year end with positive returns 71.7% of the time. So there has certainly been a bias on the part of the bulls for the NFC.
The table below lists all NFL teams who have won the Super Bowl more than once (as well as the Ravens who won the game once in 2001). In the five years where the San Francisco 49ers won the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of 20.2% for the rest of the year with positive returns four out of five times. The only year where the S&P 500 traded down following a 49ers victory was in 1990 (-6.6%) when they beat the Denver Broncos. Coincidentally, the only other team where the S&P 500 has seen greater average returns through year end than it has for the 49ers is the Broncos. For the sake of comparison, the Baltimore Ravens have only won the Super Bowl once (2001). Following that victory, the S&P 500 declined 15.3% from the game through year end. Go Niners!