Q4 Performance During Strong Election Years

We’ll be publishing a number of seasonality reports this week with the third quarter coming to an end on Friday.  Below we take a look at historical fourth quarter performance when the S&P 500 has been up 10% or more through the first three quarters of the year going back to 1928.   (The S&P 500 is currently up 15% so far in 2012.)

Over the 85 years of the S&P 500’s existence, the index has been up at least 10% through the first three quarters of the year 32 times (38%).  During these 32 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of...

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