Obama Remains Strong on Intrade; GOP Strong in Congress

Four months from today, citizens across the country will hit the ballot boxes to cast their votes in this year's Presidential election.  Over at prediction market website, Intrade.com, President Obama continues to hold a near 20-point lead over Mitt Romney in his re-election bid.  Obama's odds of winning currently stand at 58.4%, while Romney's odds are below 40 at 39.7%.  

Bettors have been widening Obama's lead over the past two months as well.  On June 6th, the spread between Obama and Romney was at 8.8% (Obama: 52.3%, Romney: 43.5%).  As of today, the spread is Obama +18.7%.

While the polls may suggest a closer race, people wagering actual money have made Obama the odds on favorite as of now.

Intrade.com also has contracts for which party will win the House and the Senate.  While Republicans may be down about the Presidential race, they have Congress to fall back on, since they're in the lead to win both the House and Senate.  In the House, the Intrade odds for the GOP to maintain control stand at 86.5%  In the Senate, the odds are tighter, but the GOP is still in the lead to win control at 52.3%.  The odds for the Democrats to maintain control of the Senate after the November election stand at 29.7%, while the odds for neither party to win control are at 18%.

The odds for the GOP to win the House versus the Senate have been going in opposite directions recently, however.  As shown in the second chart below, the odds to win the House have been steadily rising all year, while the odds to win the Senate have been falling.

If the Intrade odds all pan out, we'll have a Democrat in the White House and a Republican controlled Congress.  But we all know that four months can be an eternity in an election year, and these odds will likely move around quite a bit between now and early November.