With the GOP convention kicking off tonight, below is an updated look at where the Intrade.com "prediction market" odds currently stand for the President, House and Senate.
As shown, President Obama currently holds a 12-point lead over Romney on Intrade with odds to win of 56% to Romney's 44%. While the President currently holds a pretty wide lead over Romney, the spread has tightened a bit over the past few weeks. On August 9th, the spread was 21.6 (Obama 59.6%, Romney 38%), so it's down about 10 points over the last 3 weeks. The tightest the spread has been over the life of the contracts was 7.2 back in January. President Obama's odds haven't been below the 50% mark since then.
While Democrats hold the lead in the Presidential race, Republicans hold leads in the races to win the House and Senate. In the Senate, the Intrade.com odds for Republicans to take control stand at 53.4% compared to 25% for Democrats. This spread has tightened quite a bit over the past few months, and just last week the odds for Republican control dropped below 50%. Over the past few days, however, the spread has widened out again as odds for the Democrats to maintain control have seen a pretty sharp drop.
In the House, Republicans have run away with the lead, and their odds to maintain control are currently at their highest level ever (89%). The odds for the Democrats to win control of the House are at 10%.
If the election were held today and the Intrade.com odds played out correctly, President Obama would win re-election and Republicans would control both houses of Congress. More gridlock anyone?
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