Economist Expectations for GDP and Unemployment Out to Q1 2014

From Bloomberg, below is an updated snapshot of consensus economist estimates for GDP growth (QoQ%) and the unemployment rate going out to the first quarter of 2014.  The consensus estimates come from Bloomberg surveys of dozens of economists on a regular basis.

As shown in the first chart below, GDP growth is expected to still be below 2% in the first quarter of 2013.  Economists are then expecting GDP to grow by 2.4% in Q2 2013, 2.6% in Q3 '13, 2.8% in Q4 '13 and 2.95% in Q1 2014.  Unfortunately, 3%+ GDP growth is not expected at any point in the next year and a half.

Along with sub-3% GDP growth, economists aren't expecting a significant drop in the unemployment rate over the next year and a half either.  The consensus expectation for unemployment is 8% or higher through Q2 2013, and then it dips by 20 basis points per quarter over the next three quarters.  By Q1 2014, the unemployment rate will be at 7.5% based on the average economist estimate.

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