Goldman Sachs (GS) reports earnings tomorrow morning before the open and the current consensus analyst expectation is for the company to report earnings of $1.17/share for the second quarter. Below is a chart showing how the consensus estimate has changed over the last six months. As shown, the estimate has absolutely cratered since mid-May when JP Morgan announced its "London Whale" losses. In early May, Goldman was expected to earn nearly $2.80 in the second quarter, so analysts have slashed that estimate by more than half.
Over the past two trading days, we've seen JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) all report and beat analyst estimates. Like Goldman, JP Morgan and Citigroup both saw their estimates slashed significantly leading up to their reports, and analysts overshot to the downside on these two companies. Also, the Estimize.com estimate for Goldman is all the way up at $1.99, while the Earnings Whisper is at $1.31.
With the Estimize.com and Earnings Whisper estimates tracking higher than the consensus analyst estimate and JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all beating already, most people are now expecting Goldman to beat as well. Now the question is how much does Goldman need to beat by to trade higher?