The Supreme Court’s ruling on the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is due any day now. At the moment, the prediction market website Intrade.com — where actual money is exchanged — has the odds at 74% that the individual mandate of the law will be ruled unconstitutional. Various industries of the Health Care sector will certainly be impacted by the ruling, and below we highlight how these industries have performed over various time periods since President Obama was elected on November 4th, 2008.
For each of the ten S&P 1500 Health Care industries below, we list the median performance of the stocks in each industry over three time periods — from Obama’s election to the House passage of the health care law on 3/21/10, from the passage of the law through the start of the Supreme Court case on 3/26/12, and from the start of the Supreme Court case through today.
From these performance numbers, there are two industries that investors seem to think will be impacted negatively from a strike down of the health care law.