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Tuesday
Nov062012

Intrade Battleground State Contracts

The graphic below lists the current prices for the Intrade Presidential Election contracts for each of the 12 battleground states (for an up to the minute update click here).  As shown, there are currently only two contracts where Mitt Romney is above 50%, while Obama leads in the remaining ten.  Based on these odds alone, one could argue that you can turn off you TV sets and call it an election.  One thing to remember, though, is that just hours before the Supreme Court released its decision on the Affordable Care Act back in June, Intrade contract prices implied a 73% likelihood that the law would be overturned.  With that in mind, maybe you should stay up and watch!

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