ADP Beats Expectations For Fourth Straight Month

This morning's release of the ADP private payroll report came in better than expected for the fourth straight month (162K vs. 140K).  While this may sound like a positive omen for Friday's non-farm payrolls report, we would note that the ADP report has had a history recently of overstating the change in non-farm private payrolls from the BLS.  The chart below shows the historical spread between the monthly ADP employment report and the change in non-farm private payrolls.  Over the last year, the monthly ADP number has been higher than non-farm private payrolls eight times (75%), and over the last six months it has been higher than the non-farm private payrolls number five times (83%).

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