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Thursday
Oct252012

Post 3rd Debate Poll Results -- Romney Continues to Gain

With debate season now behind us, yesterday we ran our two investor election polls once again to see where Bespoke readers currently stand.  As shown below, 61% of respondents said they would be voting for Mitt Romney, 30% said they would be voting for President Obama, and 9% said "Other/Not Voting."

In terms of who participants think will win the election, the results currently show a dead heat at 50/50 (221 votes for Obama, 224 votes for Romney).

We've been asking readers these same two questions since debate season began, and each successive poll has shown Romney gain share.  Below we highlight the results for the four surveys we've run since just before the first debate.  Prior to the first debate, Romney held an 18-point lead on the question of "who are you voting for," while the President was up 71% to 29% on the question of "who will win."  As highlighted above, Romney currently holds a 31-point lead on the question of "who are you voting for," while the President and Romney are tied 50/50 on the question of "who will win."

Below we break out our polls results for each Presidential candidate.  You can see that the President's vote share has only dropped a bit from 34% to 30% since we ran our first polls, but poll participants clearly think Romney has a better chance of winning now than he did before the first debate.  

Romney has seen his vote share increase from 52% to 61% since we ran our first poll, which is a 9-point gain.  Since President Obama only saw a 4-point drop over the same time period, it means that Romney has picked up 5 percentage points from participants who originally chose "Other/Not Voting" in the pre first debate poll.

Based on these polls, it appears that the investment community clearly favors Romney.  And with investors now 50/50 on who is going to win, is it any wonder that the market has been struggling?  The market hates uncertainty, and 50/50 means the outcome of the election is as uncertain as it gets.

Bespoke 50

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The "Bespoke 50" is released on a weekly basis, and in it you'll find the 50 stocks that made the cut, price charts for each of them, and an Excel file that you can download as well.

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