October and Fourth Quarter Seasonality

Thank goodness that the third quarter is coming to an end.  As shown below, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.37% in the third quarter over the last 20 years, and the index is down 13.32% so far this year with a few more hours left in the quarter.  Fortunately for the bulls, the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest quarter for the market.  Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 2.44% in the fourth quarter, and over the last 20 years, the index has averaged a gain of 4.57% in Q4, which is more than twice as strong as the next closest quarter.

But how does the market perform in the fourth quarter when stocks have been down over the first three quarters of the year?  And how does performance look in Q4 of the third year of the election cycle?  Earlier today, we published a report that answers these questions and a few others over at Bespoke Premium.  To subscribe and view the report, please visit www.bespokepremium.com.  If you're already a Premium member, you can click here to view the report.