Unless the S&P 500 stages a 2% rally from here to the close, the index will have declined over each of the last five weeks. This would be the first 5-week losing streak the index has seen since July 2008. Below we highlight how the S&P has performed over the next week and five weeks following all five-week losing streaks going back to 1980.
Over all one-week periods since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.13%. Over all five-week periods, the index has averaged a gain of 0.68%. So let's see how the week and five weeks following the 24 five-week losing streaks shown below compare to these historical averages.
As shown, the index has averaged a gain of 0.03% in the week following the 24 five-week losing streaks. This is obviously below the average of 0.13% for all one-week periods since 1980, so there is a slight negative bias for next week. In the five weeks after the five-week losing streaks shown, however, the S&P has averaged a gain of 2.15%, which is much better than the average of 0.68% for all five-week periods.