« Weekend Reading from Bespoke | Main | Most Sectors Now Oversold »
Friday
Jun032011

5-Week Losing Streak

Unless the S&P 500 stages a 2% rally from here to the close, the index will have declined over each of the last five weeks.  This would be the first 5-week losing streak the index has seen since July 2008.  Below we highlight how the S&P has performed over the next week and five weeks following all five-week losing streaks going back to 1980. 

Over all one-week periods since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.13%.  Over all five-week periods, the index has averaged a gain of 0.68%.  So let's see how the week and five weeks following the 24 five-week losing streaks shown below compare to these historical averages.

As shown, the index has averaged a gain of 0.03% in the week following the 24 five-week losing streaks.  This is obviously below the average of 0.13% for all one-week periods since 1980, so there is a slight negative bias for next week.  In the five weeks after the five-week losing streaks shown, however, the S&P has averaged a gain of 2.15%, which is much better than the average of 0.68% for all five-week periods.

Reader Comments

There are no comments for this journal entry. To create a new comment, use the form below.

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>