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Friday
Dec092011

Intrade Contracts for a Recession and the Health Care Law

We've been highlighting the Intrade contracts for the 2012 elections quite a bit recently, but below are two other contracts that readers may find interesting.  The first chart shown is of the Intrade contract for whether or not the US will go into a recession in 2012.  For the contract to pay out, US real GDP would need to be negative for two consecutive quarters.  As shown, the odds of a recession in 2012 are currently at 38.2% based on actual monetary bets.  This is down from a high near 50% that was reached in early October.  Since then, economic indicator data in the US has gotten much better, and the move lower in the contract odds reflects this.

The other notable contract is whether or not Obamacare's individual mandate will be ruled unconstitutional by the end of 2012.  We know the Supreme Court is going to take up the case in 2012, so now it's just a matter of what they decide.  As shown, the Intrade contract currently puts the odds at 45% that it will be ruled unconstitutional.  The contract price has been trending higher over the past couple of months. 

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    Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - Intrade Contracts for a Recession and the Health Care Law
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    Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - Intrade Contracts for a Recession and the Health Care Law
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    Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - Intrade Contracts for a Recession and the Health Care Law
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    Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - Intrade Contracts for a Recession and the Health Care Law
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    bespoke investment group - think big - intrade contracts for a recession and the health care law

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