Final 2010 Global Market Performance
Monday, January 3, 2011 at 05:34PM Below we highlight the 2010 returns (in local currencies) for equity markets around the world. As shown, the average country saw its major equity market index gain 15.33% in 2010. Sri Lanka's stock market gained the most at 96.01%, while Bermuda declined the most at -44.87%. Six other countries along with Sri Lanka gained more than 50% in 2010 -- Bangladesh (82.79%), Estonia (72.62%), Ukraine (70.20%), Peru (64.99%), Lithuania (56.49%), and Argentina (51.83%).
Looking at just the G-7 countries, Germany did the best at 16.06%, followed by Canada (14.45%), the US (12.78%), and the UK (9%). The three other G-7 countries -- France, Japan, and Italy -- all declined last year. Of the BRICs, Russia gained the most at 22.70%, followed by India (17.43%), Brazil (1.04%), and China (-14.31%). While some are calling for developed markets to start outperforming emerging markets in 2011, the results below show that trend beginning to unfold in 2010.
Reader Comments (3)
Thanks for this helpful article.
I comment: Estonia did quite well as investors likely borrowed in Swiss Francs and invested in the Estonia market as it was a sure thing to rise as it entered the the Eurozone. I expect the Swiss Franc, FXF, to fall quickly inducing a fall in the Estonia market.
I ask: "Did the S&P Weekly, SPY Weekly, put a market high in on January 3, 2011 at 127.05; and did the S&P establish an Elliott Wave 2 high and entrance into an Elliott Wave 3 Down? "
I relate: "Major currencies, DBV, turned down on November 4, 2010 and then turned down again in front of the European Leaders Summit of December 14, 2010. But rallied into the actual meeting. As John Mauldin relates, they failed to come to a comprehensive solution to the European Sovereign and Bank Debt Crisis, their meeting was simply “kicking the can down the road”. The world currencies, DBV, fell lower then rose to what is likely an Elliott Wave 2 high today January 3, 2010, and will likely be induced lower in an Elliott Wave 3 Down after the Fed meets, as the bond vigilantes will likely be calling interest rates higher globally, as will likely be seen in world government bonds, BWX, and world corporate bonds, PICB, falling lower.
The emerging market currencies, CEW, turned down as well on November 4, 2010, and their strong rise, has caused a double top in the emerging market stocks, EEM. World currencies are likely making an Elliott Wave 2 high today January 3, 2010, and are likely to enter an Elliott Wave 3 Down this week.
It is likely that 2010 will be seen as the year that the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Bank Debt Crisis as well as anticipation of US Federal Reserve Quantatie Easing gave moneyness to the 30 10 US Sovereign debt yield curve up until October, as well as moneyness to investing in the emerging markets, EEM, with yen carry trade and dollar carry trade investing providing hot money flows.
The carry trade ETN, ICI, entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down on December 29, 2010 as the Yen, FXY, peaked at 121.20, forcing investors out of their carry trades. It will be interesting to track Peru, EPU, Indonesia, IDX, Thailand, THD, Philippines, EPHE, Chile, ECH, Columbia, GXG, Turkey, TUR, Russia, RSX, Sweden, EWD, Mexico, EWM, Latin America, LATM, and Austria, EWO, to see their competitive rates of fall.
I expect the currency traders to reinstitute the global currency war that they started November 4, 2010 against the world bankers for control of the worlds people and resources: 2011 will be the year of competivive currency deflation, that is competitive currency devaluation, at the hands of the FX traders as bond vigilantes call interest rates high on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Bank Debt Crisis as well as on the fact that Ben Bernanke’s Quantative Easing, QE 2, and US Deficit Spending, constitutes monetization of debt. I envision that all currencies, probably led by the Swiss Franc, FXF, will be falling lower in early January with the US Dollar, $USD, rising for a brief period. All currencies will be heading lower at differning rates: FXA, FXE, FXM, FXC, ICN, FXB, FXS, SZR, FXF, CYB, BZF, XRU, FXY, BNZ, DBV, CEW. In Terminator Fashion, It’s hasta la vista baby to the neoliberal Milton Friedman Free To Choose currency regime.
Project Syndicate, an international not-for-profit newspaper syndicate, in its January 2011 issue, presents global thought leader, Kenneth Rogoff, a Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and former chief economist at the IMF. In article Armageddon Can Wait, he says:
“The intellectual father of the euro, Columbia University’s Robert Mundell, once famously opined that the optimal number of currencies in the world is an odd number, preferably less than three. It is hard to see why right now.”
“Perhaps when we have one world government, it will make sense to have one world currency.”
“But, even setting aside the equilibrating benefits of flexible currencies, the prospect of a single, omnipotent central bank is not particularly appealing. Witness the vitriol and hysteria that accompanied the US Federal Reserve’s policy of so-called “quantitative easing.” Imagine the panic that would have ensued in a world where gold, storable commodities, and art were the only ways for investors to flee from the dollar.”
I relate "I have no plans, absolutely none, to use a global currency. I made the decision long ago to be invested in gold bullion. The chart of gold in terms of Australian dollars, GLD:FXA, shows that gold is the sovereign world’s currency."
Can you do one adjusted for change in currency against US Dollar.
Great stuff as usual.
Ok I understand the investing in gold bullion..but what is best? Order it and keep it at home..hidden? Order it and keep it at the bank? Keep it at a storage facility? How do you best liquidate it when you need to? A good, informed answer please?