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Wednesday
Jan192011

1% Declines From a 52-Week High

The S&P 500 is now down 1% from yesterday's 52-week closing high.  This is actually the 81st time in the index's history that it has declined more than 1% on the day after closing at a 52-week high.

Over the long term, declines of 1%+ after hitting a 52-week high have been followed with mixed market results in the following week and month.  Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged an additional decline of 0.13% over the next week, but it has averaged a gain of 0.65% over the following four weeks.  More recently (2000-2010), however, periods following one-day declines of 1% or more the day after hitting a 52-week high have been decidedly negative.  As shown in the table to the right, the average one-week change following occurrences since 2000 has been a decline of 0.64%, while the average four-week change has been a loss of 0.86%.

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