From Good to Mediocre

Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly numbers this earnings season.  What started out as a strong earnings season is going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's report).  In the first half of earnings season, the percentage of all companies beating earnings estimates remained above 70%, which is a very strong reading compared to past quarters.  The back half of earnings season has seen the "beat rate" trend lower, however, to its current level of 66%.  Sixty-six percent is still above the historical average, but it's not the number that was expected given how strong things looked at the beginning of the reporting period.

Interestingly, the "beat rate" has remained very strong for just S&P 500 stocks.  From start to finish, just under 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates.  And it seems like performance has been affected by this "earnings gap" between the big (S&P 500) and the small (the rest of US stocks).  Since earnings season began on July 12th, the S&P 500 is flat while the Small Cap 600 is down 2.25%.

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Comments

[Jared Mann]

That's remarkably consistent stats for SP500 stocks, one would think the market would be shooting a lot higher of these numbers, yet we have been flat for months.

[Marrilyn]

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