Crisis Moves to Hungary?
Friday, June 4, 2010 at 01:17PM Sovereign debt worries in Europe have been elevated for a couple of months now, and today Hungary moved into the crosshairs. Sovereign debt default risk as measured by 5-year CDS prices has spiked for Hungary and the countries surrounding it today, but default risk for this region still remains well below levels seen in late 2008 and early 2009. The first two charts below of 5-year CDS for Austria and Hungary since 2008 highlights this. Greece and Portugal default risk remains elevated as well, but at the moment it is still down from its recent peaks. France also remains elevated, but it is still below highs seen in early 2009. The same can't be said for Spain, however. Spain default risk reached a new crisis high today, taking out levels seen prior to the trillion Euro bailout. And Spain matters much more than Hungary.
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Reader Comments (5)
For perspective, it would be very interesting to see also California, Illinois, New York and Great Britain CDS graphs. Can't be very far behind...
Whats the point if you don't have the same numbers down the side....why even bother with a graph
Must agree.. Absolutely no point what so ever ..
DJ,
Each chart represents the historical price per year in basis points to buy 5 years worth of protection against sovereign debt default for the country highlighted. We could have put each country on one chart with the same price range to highlight where they stand versus each other, but our point was more to show the direction for each country and where individual prices stand now versus where they stood back in 2008, 2009, and earlier this year. Where specific country default risk stands now versus where it has been at different points in time can be seen better by having different ranges for each country. You wouldn't even be able to see the movement of France default risk, which has never eclipsed 100 bps, if it were shown on a chart with a range up to 1000 bps like Greece has.
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