Bearish Sentiment Spikes

This week's sentiment surveys from Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed sharp increases in bearish sentiment among both advisors and individual investors.  The chart below compares the S&P 500 to combined bearish sentiment in the II and AAII surveys since the start of 2009.  The current level of combined bearish sentiment is the highest since the start of November.  As shown in the chart, since the market bottomed back in 2009, spikes in bearish sentiment have actually turned out to be pretty good buying opportunities.

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Comments

[Illuminati]

You assume that the current rise is a spike. A spike needs a quick downward leg to occur- I do not see that in your chart yet...

[Hans]

Suppose we extend the chart back to 2008 and 2007, and look for the spikes in bearishness. Would those have been buying opportunities too? I'm not sure I'd want to have bought back then. Perhaps bearish sentiment is a coincident indicator, not a leading indicator (just flip the second chart upside down and you get the first chart).

[Marrilyn]

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