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Wednesday
May192010

Goldman Research Treads the "Mendoza Line"

According to Wikipedia, the "Mendoza Line" is an informal baseball term used to describe incompetent hitting.  The line represents the not-so-great batting average of .200.  The phrase was coined based on the Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Mario Mendoza, who always seemed to bat in the .100s (although he did have a lifetime average above the Mendoza Line at .215).

As of yet, the world of equity research has no equivalent to the Mendoza Line (although I'm sure we can all think of some names that would fit the bill), but this year's best ideas from Goldman Sachs are currently giving the Mendoza Line a run for its money.  According to Bloomberg.com, "seven of the investment bank’s nine 'recommended top trades for 2010' have been money losers for investors who adopted the New York-based firm’s advice."  This puts the winning percentage of the firm's best ideas at 0.222.  In all fairness, the Bloomberg story does mention the fact that nine of the firm's eleven best ideas last year were money makers (winning percentage of 0.818), so this year's performance may just be a slump.  Or who knows, maybe all of last year's analysts moved to the trading desks this year.  As Goldman recently disclosed, its trading desk 'batted a thousand' last quarter.

 

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