Positive Earnings Revisions

The strong growth in earnings seen in the first quarter has caused analysts to up their forward estimates quite a bit in recent weeks.  Year-over-year earnings growth in Q1 for the S&P 500 is currently at 50%.  Expectations at the start of earnings season were about 30%.  Below is a chart highlighting the net percentage of upside earnings revisions (stocks with positive revisions minus stocks with negative revisions over the total number of stocks) for the S&P 1500.  As shown, net upside revisions had been in a short-term downtrend heading into the current reporting period, but it has since spiked to multi-year highs and is currently just under 30%.

Positive revisions have been exceptionally strong in the Industrial sector at +41.4%.  Net upside revisions were basically flat for the entire fourth quarter of 2009, and then they declined for most of Q1 2010.  Over the last couple of months, however, analysts have had to significantly increase their earnings estimates for stocks in the Industrial sector as companies continue to report strong numbers and raise guidance.

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