Easter Week Returns

Given the Passover and Easter holidays this week, trading is likely to be on the light side as many investors will be out on vacation.  For those who are still in the office, or at least focusing on the market, this morning we wanted to highlight the average performance of the S&P 500 before and after Easter.  Going back to 1945, the S&P 500 has been positive nearly two-thirds of the time in the week leading up to Easter for an average gain of 0.56%.  The week after Easter has been less positive.  On the Monday after Easter, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.16%, while the week after Easter has seen a paltry average return of 0.03%.

Looking at just the last ten years of returns shows a similar, although more positive trend.  In the week before Easter, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.77% with positive returns 60% of the time.  Interestingly, even though most traders are expecting a quiet week, recent history suggests the opposite.  In seven out of the last ten years, the S&P 500 has seen a move (up or down) of more than 1%.  On the Monday after Easter, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.14% with positive returns half of the time.  In the week after Easter, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of 0.72% with positive returns 70% of the time.

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