Health Care Bill Odds of Passage Jumps to 80%
Friday, March 19, 2010 at 10:45AM Sunday is currently expected to be the day where the House of Representatives determines the fate of the current health care reform bill. Over at Intrade.com, the odds for a bill to be signed into law by the middle of the year have jumped to 80%.
As the odds of passage have gone higher since the contract opened for trading in January, the odds for the Republican party to take back the House in 2010 and the Presidency in 2012 have also risen. As shown below, the odds for the Republican party to control the house after the November elections have risen to 45.7%. The odds for a Republican to win the Presidency in 2012 have risen to 42.8%. While the health care vote will likely have an impact on many elections later this year, a bet on the 2012 election based on events occurring now are futile given how far away that election is and how quickly things change in DC. At any rate, the odds for health care's passage are now very high, and with that increase the odds for Republicans to make a considerable dent in the Democratic majority have also moved significantly higher since the 2008 election.
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I remember how a lot of us were crossing our fingers on this health care issue. We as patients, we're and are still hoping for the best. It's not only our health which is at stake here but also our money. We're in the middle of two businesses--that of the providers and of the health insurance companies.
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