Estimated Earnings Growth for Q1 '2010 and Beyond

Below we highlight the estimated year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 for the next three quarters, along with expected growth ex financials.  While ex-financials growth was low in Q4 '09, it is also beginning to pick up again.  For the first quarter, S&P 500 earnings are expected to be up 28.7% versus Q1 '09.  Earnings are expected to grow 28.6% in Q2 '10, and then drop a little to 22.3% in the third quarter.

For the first quarter, seven sectors are expected to see year-over-year growth, while three sectors are expected to see a decline.   The Materials sector is expected to see the most growth versus Q1 '09 at 144%, followed by Financials (86.6%), Technology (51.9%), Consumer Discretionary (47.8%), and Energy (44.7%).  Telecom is the only sector expected to see a noteworthy decline at -15.1%.  Utilities and Industrials are currently estimated to see year-over-year earnings fall by about 1%.