Bespoke's Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue Indicator

It's that time of year again!  Sports Illustrated just revealed that this year's cover model for the annual swimsuit issue was US model Brooklyn Decker.  Based on Bespoke's Swimsuit Issue Indicator, what does this mean for the market?  If history is any guide, the weak start to 2010 may soon reverse. 

The table below highlights the annual performance of the S&P 500 since 1978.  For each year, we also show the country from which that year's cover model came from.  Since 1978, an American has now appeared on the cover of the annual Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue in 17 different years.  The average performance of the S&P 500 during the prior 16 years is a gain of 10.6% with 13 positive years (81.3%).  Of the 16 years where no American appeared on the cover, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 8.2% with 12 positive years (75%).

While the S&P 500 has historically done better in years when an American has appeared on the cover, the percentage spread has narrowed considerably in the last two years.  The S&P 500 declined 38.5% in 2008 when American Marissa Miller was on the cover, while it rose 23.5% in 2009 when Israeli model Bar Refaeli graced the cover.  Given these exceptions, it is important to remember that there are always exceptions to the rule, and like any of the other whimsical indicators out there (Super Bowl, hemlines, etc.), you shouldn't take them too seriously.  But at least they give you an excuse to read Sports Illustrated.

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Year	Country	S&P 500 (%)
1978	Brazil	1.1
1979	USA	12.3
1980	USA	25.8
1981	USA	-9.7
1982	USA	14.8
1983	USA	17.3
1984	Czechoslovakia	1.4
1985	Czechoslovakia	26.3
1986	Australia	14.6
1987	Australia	2.0
1988	Australia	12.4
1989	USA	27.3
1990	Spain	-6.6
1991	USA	26.3
1992	USA	4.5
1993	Sweden	7.1
1994	Multiple (NZ, US, AU)	-1.5
1995	Czech Republic	34.1
1996	Multiple (AR, US)	20.3
1997	USA	31.0
1998	Germany	26.7
1999	USA	19.5
2000	Czech Republic	-10.1
2001	Mexico	-13.0
2002	Argentina	-23.4
2003	Czech Republic	26.4
2004	Czech Republic	9.0
2005	USA	3.0
2006	Multiple Countries	13.6
2007	USA	3.5
2008	USA	-38.5
2009	Israel	23.5
2010	USA	???

Comments

[Vt]

Guys, you should analyze Playboy, too :]