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Friday
Feb052010

S&P 500 Now 3 Standard Deviations Below 50-DMA

DateFriday, February 5, 2010 at 01:51PM

The S&P 500 is now nearly as oversold as it was at some of the worst points of the financial crisis.  Below is a chart of the S&P 500's trading range using 3 standard deviations above and below the index's 50-day moving average.  The index is currently trading right at the bottom of this range, which didn't happen that often during the last bear market.  It definitely hasn't been this oversold at any point during the rally.  The index is now down 9% from its closing high on January 19th, which is very close to the standard 10% correction.

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Reader Comments (71)

So, what exactly happened at 3 Pm today? Did the S7P bounce back from its 200 DMA or something like that???

February 5, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterAPB

"the standard 10% correction" -- corrections have been standardized?

February 5, 2010 | Unregistered Commenterchomen

It looks to me that the market crashed in the fall of 2008 right after a similar occurence. It also happened at the lows in March of 2009. The big difference being that in March of 2009 we were also very oversold on a long term basis. Seems this current occurence has a lot more in common with the former than the latter.

FV

February 5, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterFairVakue

Man, this bearishness is hilarious! Every comment is miserable, like the world is going to end tomorrow! I love it. The bull run will continue!

February 5, 2010 | Unregistered Commenterlongandstrong

Chomen,

All we meant by the comment was that most people consider a 10% pullback that was preceded by a gain of at least 20% to be a "correction." Obviously everyone has their own methodologies, but the general correction definition is at -10%. Just like a "bear market" for most people is a 20% decline that was preceded by a gain of at least 20%.

February 5, 2010 | Registered CommenterBespoke

Nice chart...I've included a link to a chart that adds another standard deviation to your image. May be worth a look.
Note when the 22.5, 2.3 BB breaks outside the 50, 3 BB...[copy and paste the link below]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16573475591

Best regards,
Louis
www.PhototropeStudio.com

February 7, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterLouis

I'm no technician but doesn't "3 SD below 50 DMA" simply mean that the decline is very fast? How does that inform us as to the merit of the decline?

Just asking.

GM

February 7, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterGeorge M

Forget the numbers.... Everyone is trying to kick the gasoline addiction either by buying a new fuel efficient car or stay home . Nobody wants to pay higher prices for gasoline again. It is no longer business as usual . We dont have energy to do it.. We are waiting for the alternate energy to take off.. So far, nothing yet..

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Wonderful post... Very informational and educational as usual!

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