President's Day Trading

With President's Day coming up next Monday, below we highlight the historical performance of the S&P 500 during the shortened President's Day work week.  President's Day (Washington's birthday) has been celebrated on the third Monday of February since 1971.  Since then, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.20% in the four trading days following President's Day.  The market has historically gained about 0.12-0.15% during the average five-day work week, so -0.20% over four days is pretty bad.

In the table below, we broke years up based on whether the S&P 500 was up or down heading into the President's Day holiday.  As shown, the S&P 500 was up YTD by the holiday in years on the left, and down YTD in years on the right.  There is quite a difference based on these two scenarios.  In years when the market was up heading into President's Day, the index has averaged a gain of 0.20% during President's Day week.  In years when the market was down heading into President's Day, the index has averaged a decline of 0.77% during President's Day week.  Unfortunately, the S&P 500 is currently down 3.55% year to date.

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