Durable Goods Orders Down More Than 20%

If January's Durable Goods report is any indication, 2009 didn't start off on a good economic note.  As shown in the chart below, durable goods orders for the month declined by 23.3% on a year/year basis, which is the steepest decline in the history of the indicator (since 1960).  If we strip out the transportation component of this series, orders for durable goods declined by a more "modest" 17.4%, which is the lowest level since 1975.

With January's 5.2% decline versus December, durable goods orders have now either been flat or down for six straight months.  Since 1960, there have only been four other periods where this has occurred (1967, 1970, 1975, and 1981).  In two of these periods, durable goods orders rose in the seventh month, and in the other two periods durable goods orders declined for a seventh month before turning positive.