The Tech Market

Since the market broke out of its trading range last week, the Nasdaq has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow 30.  As shown below, the Nasdaq is now up 4.02% since November 16th versus 1.43% for the S&P and 1.07% for the Dow.  For the year, the Nasdaq is up 45.28% versus 25% for the S&P 500 and 20% for the Dow.  And since the market hit its all-time highs on October 9th, 2007, the Nasdaq is now down just 18.3%.  The Dow is down 25.5% since then and the S&P 500 is down about 28%.  If it weren't for tech, things would look a lot worse.

Comments

[TC]

Take a look at the cumulative advance-decline line on NASDAQ. You will see that, since March '09 bottom, participation in NASDAQ's monster advance has been relatively narrow, not at all keeping pace with the advance in the Composite Index. In fact, you might better conclude NASDAQ's recovery largely has been a function of a general willingness among investors to hold the greater preponderance of their losing positions rather than either add to them, or more telling, sell them off as prices recover. This disparity has become all the more glaring since mid-October '09.

If you consider this, too, from the perspective that, NASDAQ has been leading the way lower since Y2k, then you might be wiser to compare NASDAQ's present, momentary outperformance to the same relative condition last August (2008) right before the lug nuts came off the market.