Up 62% in 9 Months

It has been exactly nine months since the S&P 500 bottomed on March 9th at 676.53.  Since then, the index has rallied 62%.  Below we provide a chart of the rolling 9-month change (%) for the S&P 500 going back to 1928.  As shown, 1933 was the only other time when the S&P 500 had a bigger 9-month gain.  The 9-month period ending on May 12th, 1983 is the next best behind the current one with a gain of 60%.  Also, the 9-month 62% gain was preceded by a 9-month decline of 51%.  The only time that the index fell more over a 9-month period was in 1931/32 when it dropped 68%.  It's easy to forget how crazy things were over the last 18 months, but stats like these provide a staggering refresher.

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Comments

[Reader]

But what happens in the 9 months after a 50-60% gain?

[www.facebook.com/profile.php?i]

A fair point, and one perhaps more relevant (useful) to our current situation. From the graph it looks like big sell-offs over the next few months after the big gains. Look out below!

[Gordon]

nobody knows nuthin'.

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Global growth seen fueling stock gainsCaroline ValetkevitchNEW YORKFri Jun 15, 2007 3:15pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The outlook for U.S. stocks is looking bright as growth in global economies defies even the most bearish expectations.

While the pace of growth is starting to fuel concerns about inflation, strategists addressing the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York this week said price pressures would likely remain contained, lending support to equities, especially industrial and energy companies.

"The entire world is in a tightening mode. This means things are generally good. The world economy is doing relatively well," said Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group in Harrison, New York.

Last week, worries about inflation pushed benchmark U.S. bond prices lower, pushing yields up above 5 percent for the first time since August.

Central banks have also been raising interest rates, including the European Central Bank and New Zealand's.

Even so, investor optimism about takeovers, profits and share buybacks is underpinning demand for stocks.

"In stocks, it's certainly a buying opportunity," Hickey said. "These bond market routs don't always cause sell-offs in the stock market, but when they do, going forward the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has produced much better-than-average returns in the one, three and six-month period."

[dj]

good find Gordon ... now just change the date too now ,an it works for me... so lang as the VIX (2.2) is over 20 will be rocken an a rollen

[David3]

"nobody knows nuthin'." ?

the Treasury yield curve as flat to negative on and around "Fri Jun 15, 2007 3:15pm EDT"

[BR549]

What is this investment group smoking? To suggest that this upswing is cause to celebrate would be like taking a junk car out of the scrap yard and assuming you can make it across town just because one tire happens to be inflated.

[Guentyer Schmidt]

The statement,"Up 62% in 9 month," is deceiving. May I suggest,"The stock market collapsed by 62% 9 month ago."

[Marrilyn]

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