New Bull Market For Oil?

Based on the standard bull/bear market move of 20%, oil is already well into a new bull market with its move of 44.7% since its closing low of $33.87 on December 19th.  Since 2000, the average oil bull market has seen the commodity rise 89%, while the average bear has seen oil decline by 39%.  The 88-day decline in oil from 9/22 to 12/19 of 72% was by far the steepest drop the commodity has ever seen without a 20% rally.  The last four bull and bear markets in oil have all come within 6 months, highlighting the extreme volatility in the commodities market.  As shown in the bottom chart, the number of days that the last four market cycles have lasted has been much lower than normal.  It's likely that we'll continue to see these big swings in short periods of time until the financial markets cool down.

 

 

Comments

[DOYOUBELIEVETHISDRIBBLE]

They actually pay you for such nonsense? What do you mean by standard?? How are you using this information to navigate in these markets? What time frame are you considering?

Clearly, this is Wall Street dribble of no value whatsoever. So why produce such inputs?

[San Fran Sam]

You get what you pay for... and this is free.

[Mark A. Sadowski]

The current bull market is based on three ephemeral events.1) Tensions between India and Pakistan2) Tensions between Israel and Hamas3) Tensions between Russia and UkraineUnless any of the above is not resolved, or some new "tension" arises, expect this market to revert to current fundamentals. In other words the current bull market will end up being just that: bull.