Down Four Months In A Row -- We Have To Go Up Next Month, Right?

Below we highlight the one, three and six month performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average following four consecutive down months in a row since 1900.  As shown, the median performance over the three time periods is lower than the median for all periods in all three instances.  The one-month median performance following four down months is actually negative (-0.56%).  This data suggests more losses could be in store.

 

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Comments

[Don]

One thing I noticed in the one month column is the asymmetric nature of the gains and losses. The gains are less frequent, but huge. The losses are more frequent, but very small compared to the size of the gains.

[the stock doc]

Good call Don. the rallies seem to be snap backs and the declines seem to be small. maybe it's better to take the upside bet then.

[ArizonaChartist]

Well then, let's take the next step. If, as you say, more losses are ahead then please analyze the returns after 5 straight months of losses.

Thanks in advance.

[Don]

Follow-up. Results are in. It was a VERY small loss of less than -0.03%. Who'd of thunk it! After what we saw in January and February, and considering the news during the fifth month [March], that the 2007-2008 string of four straight losers would lead to the smallest move EVER.