"Inflation" Deflating

Most readers will remember that it was only this Summer that inflation was among the top worries regarding the stability of the economy.  Whether it was oil, food, or modern art, prices were rising all over the world.  As the chart below highlights, a word search of the term 'inflation' peaked during the Summer.  Since then, commodities have had their most severe crash in history, food prices have stopped rising, and art auctions at Sotheby's are getting barely any bids.  As a result, worries over inflation have steadily dropped, and mentions of the term 'inflation' in a database of newspapers have dropped by 32%.

 

While it was only three months ago that spiraling inflation was the worry of the day, now the markets are preoccupied with deflation.  We also did a word search of the term 'deflation' on a weekly basis in 2008, and while the frequency of the term in newspapers was pretty much unchanged for most of the year, since September the amount of ink being used to discuss deflation has increased by 220%! 

 

Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.

Comments

[Murray]

The secular trend of disinflation since the early 1980s (as measured by the 10 yr yield, the feds favorite gauge of inflation) remains intact, just as it did during the commodities bubble.