Economic Indicators

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since January 2008

Bespoke — Thu, 09 May 2013 13:20:06 +0000

Jobless claims came in lower than expected this week (323K vs. 335K) and fell to another post-recession low in the process. This represents the lowest level since 1/18/08. For the last several weeks, we have been highlighting the fact that jobless claims have been the one bright spot among the weaker than expected economic data recently, and with claims being one of the only indicators issued this week, the bulls are happy.

This week's decline also brought the four-week moving average down to 336.8K, which is also a post-recession low.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, first time claims were also impressive as they fell below 300K (298.5K) for the first time since September and were at their lowest level since 10/5/07. For the current week of the year, claims were also at their lowest level since 2007 and well below the historical average for this time of year (350.6K) going back to 2000.

Jobless Claims Fall to a Five Year Low

Bespoke — Thu, 02 May 2013 15:05:33 +0000

While most of the economic data we have been seeing lately has been weaker than expected, one bright spot over the last few months has been initial jobless claims. This week proved to be no exception as jobless claims came in considerably lower than expected (324K vs 342K). It was also the lowest weekly reading in claims going all the way back to January 2008!

Looking at the four-week moving average of jobless claims, we also saw a notable drop this week from 358.3K down to 342.3K. While it was not enough to make a new post-recession low (340.8K), it was the largest weekly drop in the four-week moving average since December.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, first time jobless claims fell down to 298.7K. This represents the lowest weekly reading for this time of year dating back to 2007 (267.7K).

Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected

Bespoke — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 12:48:23 +0000

While it seems that just about every economic indicator being released these days has been weaker than expected, today's jobless claims reading provided a little bit of a bright spot. While economists were forecasting claims to come in at 350K, the actual reading came in 11K lower at 339K, which is just 5K above the post-recession low.

This week's decline caused the four-week moving average to fall to 357.5K from 362K. This level still has a ways to go before the post-recession low of 340.8K comes into play.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), jobless claims fell to 323.5K from last week's reading of 358.2K. For the current week, this is the lowest reading in claims since 2007, and it's well below the historical average of 371.4K for the current week dating back to 2000.

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Jobless Claims Rise Slightly More Than Forecast

Bespoke — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 12:55:48 +0000

Following last week's large drop in initial jobless claims, economists were looking for a modest increase this week and that is exactly what we got. Compared to last week's revised level of 348K, first time claims rose by 4K to 352K, which was 2K more than the 350K consensus estimate. In the recent environment of weak economic data, though, a miss of just 2K in claims is almost a win.

The four-week moving average for initial jobless claims also increased this week rising from 358.5K up to 361.3K. This is more than 20K above the post-recession low of 340.8K that we saw a month ago and represents the fifth straight week of increases.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), initial claims dropped by a little more than 1K. For the current week of the year, claims are at their lowest point since 2007, and well below the average of 355K for the current week going back to 2000.

Empire Manufacturing Weaker Than Expected

Bespoke — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 22:58:29 +0000

Yesterday's release of the April Empire Manufacturing came in slightly weaker than expected and set the table for what could be another batch of subpar monthly economic data for April. While economists were expecting the headline reading to come in at 7.00, the actual level came in at 3.05, which was down from March's reading of 9.24. In addition to the decline in General Business Conditions, we also saw slower momentum in New Orders and Shipments. At the same time, Unfilled Orders, Delivery Times, and Inventories all saw outright contractions. Perhaps the biggest bright spot in the report was the fact that plans to increase capital spending increased to 20.5 for the third straight monthly increase.

Initial Claims Drop More Than Expected

Bespoke — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 14:00:42 +0000

After last week's surge in jobless claims and the weak employment report on Friday, bulls were understandably on edge heading into today's report. Thankfully, today's report essentially reversed the gains of last week as first time claims dropped by 32K from 388K down to 346K. This week's drop brought the weekly reading back down to the lower end of its recent range.

Even after this week's decline, the four-week moving average for claims actually saw a modest increase, rising from 355K up to 358K. The reason for the increase was the dropping of a 334K reading on March 8th, which was actually the lowest reading of the recovery. In spite of the increase, though, the four-week moving average is also still close to its lows of the recovery.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), jobless claims actually rose from 316.9K up to 354K. While that may sound noteworthy, it really isn't due to the fact that it is typical for NSA claims to rise in the first week of April. For this time of year, NSA claims are at their lowest point since 2007 and well below the historical average of 392.7K dating back to 2000.

Initial Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected

Bespoke — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 13:35:46 +0000

In what has been a steady streak of weaker than expected economic data, jobless claims kept the streak going as first time claims rose to their highest level since late November. While economists were expecting claims to come in at 353K, the actual reading came in much higher at 385K. Bulls can only hope that the seasonal adjustments were skewed as a result of the early Easter holiday.

This week's increase in the weekly reading caused the four-week moving average to rise by more than 11K from 343K up to 354.3K. This is the highest reading in this indicator since February 22nd.

The only hope for bulls in this week's jobless claims reading was the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) level of claims which actually fell slightly from 315.6K down to 314K. At this level, NSA claims are the lowest for this time of year since 2007, and well below the average of 349.7K for the current week going back to 2000.

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ISM Services Weaker Than Expected

Bespoke — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 14:11:03 +0000

It certainly has not been a great week for economic data relative to expectations at least. Following the weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing report on Monday and this morning's weaker than expected ADP Employment report, the ISM Non-Manufacturing report for March came in weaker than expected as well. While economists were expecting a level of 55.5, the actual reading came in a little more than a point lighter (54.4). While the size of the miss was not as large as the miss in the ISM Manufacturing report and is still indicative of decent growth, it was just another in what has become an unusual string of weaker than expected data. Additionally, with this month's decline, some chart watchers may be growing worried about a second lower high in the ISM Services Index (first chart below table).

As shown in the table, like last month, all ten subcomponents were above 50 once again. That being said, only two of the components (Supplier Deliveries and Import Orders) increased this month relative to last month, while four are higher now than they were last year. Combining the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing reports together, this month's overall ISM reading was 54.0, which was down from last month's level of 55.8 and last year's reading of 54.8.

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ISM Manufacturing Weaker Than Expected

Bespoke — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 14:14:58 +0000

This morning's release of the ISM Manufacturing survey for March was above fifty and indicative of growth, but given expectations there was not much to like about the report. While economists were forecasting a reading of 54.0 the actual reading came in at 51.3. In the table below, we summarize the current reading of the headline index and each of its ten sub-components relative to last month and last year. As shown, just three of the components (customer inventories, employment, and prices paid) in this month's report increased this month. Compared to a year ago, only four components are higher now than they were then.

Interestingly, the highest reading of any subcomponent this month came from export orders (56.0). Given the stronger dollar, one would think that if any area of manufacturing was going to show weakness it would be exports.

The chart below shows the ISM headline index going back to 1990, and below that we show charts of each of the ten components.

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Philly Fed Moves Back to Positive Levels

Bespoke — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 14:08:20 +0000

This morning's release fo the Philly Fed report for March came in better than expected (2.0 vs -3.0). The table to the right shows the change in the headline index and each of its subcomponents relative to February. As shown, the headline index saw a nice jump this month from last month's level of negative 12.5. Interestingly, while the General Business Index increased by 14.5 points, none of the subcomponents saw a greater increase and only slightly more than half (5 out of 9) increased. The largest decline came in the average workweek which declined from negative 1.6 to negative 12.9.

The charts below show the historical readings of the headline index and each of its subcomponents going back to 1980 with recessions highlighted in gray.

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