The trading desks will begin to fill back up next week as the unofficial summer comes to an end this weekend.  This usually means market activity starts to pick up again, and we could be in store for a new trend to emerge over the last four months of the year.  If you enjoy reading this site and have yet to make the trip over to our premium website, below we provide explanations and samples of some of the unique reports we release to Premium members on a daily basis (click on thumbnails to view samples).  For a look at the complete list of products included with a Bespoke Premium subscription, please visit our Products page.  And don't forget, we also release our in-depth Week in Review newsletter each Friday that includes a complete look at our Model Stock Portfolio.  Have a great Labor Day weekend!

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The S&P 500 is up a little more than 5% over the last 3 days.  Below we highlight how the index's ten major sectors have performed since the start of September, along with sector performance during the prior pullback from 8/9 to 8/31.  Unsurprisingly, the sectors that were down the most during the pullback are up the most during the rally.  Industrials, Financials, and Technology got hit the hardest in the back half of August, and they have bounced quite a bit this week.  Consumer Discretionary is the one sector that outperformed (slightly) during the pullback and is also outperforming over the last three days.  The defensives -- Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Telecom -- all held up well as the market fell in August, but they're only up modestly on the bounce.

The same holds true on an individual stock basis.  Below we have broken the S&P 500 into deciles (ten groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance during the pullback from 8/9 to 8/31.  As shown, the 50 stocks that held up the best during the pullback are only up an average of 2.7% since the start of September.  The 50 worst performing stocks from 8/9 to 8/31 are up an average of 9.4% since 9/1. 

Below are the 30 stocks that have done the best over the last three days.  As shown, Office Depot (ODP) is up the most with a gain of 17.60%, followed by Nordstrom (15.18%), Jabil Circuit (14.44%), and E*Trade Financial (14.15%).  Other notables on the list of winners include SanDisk (SNDK), Harley Davidson (HOG), Monster Worldwide (MWW), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Broadcom (BRCM). 

We've heard some commentary today noting that the first Friday of September has typically been a rough day for the market.  We went back and looked at the Dow's performance on all of the first Fridays of September since 1900 to see what the numbers actually look like.  Below is a list of all of them. 

As shown, the average change for the Dow on all 109 days since 1900 has been +0.22%.  This is pretty positive considering the average change for all days since 1900 has been about +0.03%.  The median change is strong as well at +0.21%.  The worst first Friday of September came in 2001 when the Dow declined 2.39%.  The best first Friday of September came in 1932 when the index climbed 4.21%.  Over the last 10 years, the index has been up 5 times and down 5 times on these days, and the index was up 1.03% on the first Friday of September last year.  So really, the first Fridays of September haven't been that bad at all.

Yesterday we posted that the S&P 500 closed just below resistance at its 50-day moving average.  Heading into the last half hour of trading, the index is now about 5 points above the 50-day.  A close above this level will be a welcome sign for those hoping for the rally to continue.

The S&P 500 got off to a strong start to September today with a gain of 2.95%.  But the index still has plenty of work to do from a technical perspective before a new bullish case can be made.  To start, the index needs to get back above its 50-day moving average, and as shown below, the 50-day acted as a point of resistance today that just couldn't quite be broken.  For those hoping that the upside momentum will continue, it will be important to see a close above the 50-day in the next couple of days.

To find out how the S&P 500 typically performs in the rest of September following a strong start to the month, subscribe to Bespoke Premium today.

In mid-August we noted that investment advisers picked the wrong time to turn bullish as bullish sentiment rose sharply just before the S&P 500 began its next leg lower.  While early August was the wrong time to turn bullish, will early September be the wrong time to turn bearish?  Today's release of bearish sentiment from Investors Intelligence showed the highest level of bears since the last week of March (37.7%).  This came on a day when the S&P 500 had its best day since early July.

To find out how the S&P 500 typically performs in the rest of September following a strong start to the month, subscribe to Bespoke Premium today.